Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County Prediction, Tips, Preview

England’s second tier returns on Friday night with not one, but two fixtures. One of those games sees Blackburn Rovers take on Derby County at Ewood Park.

While the hosts will be searching for improvement following last season’s poor finish, the visitors will be looking to continue on the up after winning promotion from League One. Read on for our Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County predictions.

Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County prediction

For the Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 3-1 win for Blackburn based on our analysis.

The visitors will come into this game looking to make a splash, though Ewood Park isn’t the easiest place to go, while having been at this level for longer, the hosts may just have more about them in terms of quality, especially in the final third.

Our predictions and tips for Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County are as follows:

Blackburn Rovers to Win @ 13/10 with Betfred
Eiran Cashin Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 4/1 with bet365

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Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County betting odds

The early betting implies that the hosts have a 43.5% winning chance. The table below shows the implied probabilities for all three possible outcomes, along with our adjusted probabilities and the differences.

Bet	Odds	Implied probability	Our adjusted probability	Difference
Blackburn	13/10	43.5%	45.5%	+2.0%
Derby County	2/1	33.3%	26.7%	-6.6%
Tie	5/2	28.6%	27.8%	-0.8%

Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County head-to-head statistics

The last time that these two old boys of English football locked horns was in the 2021/22 season, when Blackburn Rovers won both home and away against Derby County.

Friday’s hosts have also won each of the last four renewals of this fixture, winning by three goals to one when the pair last met at Ewood Park.

Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County preview

This match will be played on 09/08/2024 at Ewood Park. Kick off will be at 20:00 GMT.

It was a disappointing campaign for Blackburn last time around. Having narrowly missed out on the play-offs at the end of the 2022/23 season, finishing seventh, out of the top six on goal difference only, Rovers’ fans probably had high hopes going into the season.

Unfortunately, although they once again scored no shortage of goals, with forward Sammie Szmodics finishing as the league’s top scorer, they struggled to be consistent, winning nowhere near enough games, before eventually finishing in a poor 19th position.

John Dahl Tomasson lasted at the helm until February, when John Eustace was brought in instead. Now with a full pre-season behind him, the fledgling manager will be hoping to push up the table.

Rovers have what looks like a tidy enough squad, though it remains to be seen whether main man Szmodics will remain at the club when the transfer window closes. For now, he’s there, which is a big plus, but if he goes, they’ll look a lot less threatening, that’s for sure.

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After a couple of seasons in League One, Derby County are back in England’s second tier, and they’ll be looking to move forward.

With Paul Warne in charge, the men from Pride Park have steadied themselves over the last few years.

In truth, after nine managers in seven years, Warne has brought some much needed stability to the club. The question is after steadying the ship and guiding it through the often treacherous waters of League One, can Warne help the Rams kick on at this level? Time will tell.

Blackburn Rovers vs Derby County betting tips

As Blackburn and Derby go head-to-head in one of the Championship’s two curtain raisers, I’m going for two bets, both of which stand out as offering just a smidgen of value.

Blackburn Rovers to Win

In the betting, while odds of 13/10 are floating around, the hosts look worth betting on to make a winning start to the new season.

For starters, a home game against newly promoted opposition is clearly a big opportunity, while they have the players to overpower what is a team perhaps lacking in out-and-out second-tier quality, especially in the final third.

Goals could be a problem for Derby this term. The Rams were the fifth highest scorers in League One last season, with James Collins often providing the goods, but I’m far from convinced that the 33-year-old, who has scored the bulk of his career goals in League One and League Two, will be as effective this time around.

In contrast, all the time Rovers have Szmodics, they shouldn’t struggle to get the ball in the net, and that’s a difference that shouldn’t be ignored here.

Ultimately, when push comes to shove in this one, the hosts look to have enough about them to get the job done, so much so that they could (and likely will be by the time this one kicks off) be shorter than 13/10.

Eiran Cashin Over 0.5 Shots on Target

This one is a little rogue, but hey, rogue is better than boring, right? Anyway, visiting defender Eiran Cashin is far from one of Derby’s biggest goal threats, but he did have a habit of getting off a few shots last season.

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The Irish defender is tenacious and full of energy, so don’t be surprised if he’s keen to make a name for himself at this level.

Towards the end of last season, Cashin took at least one shot in each of his last four matches, hitting the target three times.

A threat in the air, Cashin also scored three goals, all of which came either directly from set pieces or crosses that instantly followed a set piece.

Given that he averaged 0.88 shots per 90 minutes (0.30 shots on target) last time around, the youngster, who may well be on the up, is worthy of a little support at odds of 4/1.