Luton Town vs QPR Prediction, Tips, Preview

After the EFL Cup took precedence during the week, it’s back down to the nitty-gritty of the Championship this weekend.

A weekend of second-tier action begins on Friday night with Luton taking on QPR at Kenilworth Road. The pair will meet for not only the second time this season, but the second time this week. Can the hosts pick up their first win of the campaign? Read on for our Luton Town vs QPR predictions.

Luton Town vs QPR prediction

For the Luton Town vs QPR match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-1 win for Luton Town based on our analysis.

Luton were on top when the pair drew (in regular time) in the EFL Cup during the week and could easily get the job done now back on home soil. The visitors haven’t looked too strong so far this season, let’s be honest.

Our predictions and tips for the Luton Town vs QPR fixture are as follows:

Luton Town to Win @ 4/5 with Betfred
Carlton Morris to Score @ 2/1 with bet365

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Luton Town vs QPR betting odds

The betting below shows that QPR are quite well fancied here, with the current odds on the home win carrying an implied probability of 55.6%. The table below shows all implied probabilities, plus our adjusted probabilities and the differences.

Bet	Odds	Implied probability	Our adjusted probability	Difference
Luton Town	4/5	55.6%	57.9%	+2.3%
QPR	10/3	23.1%	21.1%	-2.0%
Draw	5/2	28.6%	21.0%	-7.6%

Luton Town vs QPR head-to-head statistics

The pair met on Tuesday night in the EFL Cup. They drew 1-1 at Loftus Road, before QPR won on penalties. This will be the first league meeting between the pair since 2022, when Luton won by three goals to nil away from home, having won 3-1 at Kenilworth Road.

Luton Town vs QPR preview

This match will be played on 30/08/2024 at Kenilworth Road. Kick off will be at 20:00 GMT.

Having dropped out of the Premier League, the Hatters went into the season among those fancied for promotion, but so far, things haven’t quite gone to plan.

They were blown out of the water by a rampant Burnley team first time out, before stuttering their way to a 0-0 draw against newly promoted Portsmouth. Last weekend, they lost at Preston, meaning that they’ve taken just one point from a possible nine, leaving them in an unpleasant 19th place.

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It’s fair to say that results need to improve, but if we look at their last few performances, then the men managed by Rob Edwards haven’t done too badly. They’ve not given much away since that game against the Clarets, while they were unlucky against Portsmouth on match-day two.

The same can be said for that midweek cup exit against Friday's opponents, who they dominated, without striking a killer blow, before losing on penalties. Back on home soil, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if they made their dominance pay.

For the visitors, it’s been a similarly poor start to the season. I expected plenty from QPR ahead of the new campaign, as I alluded to in a couple of pre-season articles, but they’re yet to really show up, instead delivering a string of underwhelming efforts.

They started well on match-day one, scoring early, before offering very little, losing by three goals to one in tame fashion.

Away at Sheffield United next time out, the R’s did show more fight, coming from two goals down to draw, though that result didn’t act as a platform from which to build as they were held at home by the lowly Pilgrims, who were down to ten men before half time, last weekend.

Luton Town vs QPR Betting tips

Ahead of Friday’s clash at Kenilworth Road, there are a couple of bets that catch the eye:

Luton Town to Win

As anyone who has read even a handful of my previews will know, I’m far from a big odds-on bettor, but I am very much of the opinion that this is a slightly bigger opportunity for the hosts than the early odds suggest, so taking odds of 4/5 is worthwhile.

I know that Luton failed to beat QPR in normal time during the week, but they were the better team in that game, producing considerably more in terms of clear-cut scoring opportunities, which bodes well ahead of this return home.

The visitors were very underwhelming in the league last weekend, failing to beat Plymouth, despite having a man advantage for two thirds of the contest. It’s clear for all to see that they’re struggling to be as effective offensively with Ilias Chair, who is yet to play this season and is reportedly close to a move to Leeds.

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Anyway, the Hatters have been a little unlucky at times during the early weeks, while their mid-week effort suggests that they can overpower Friday’s visitors.

Carlton Morris to Score

I’m also going to side with Luton’s primary central striker Carlton Morris to notch his first goal of the season.

The powerful and no-nonsense forward proved to be relatively effective in the Premier League last season, scoring 11 goals, while he notched 20 in the Championship prior to that.

Yet to fire on all cylinders this season, Morris has looked up for it and this home game against a team that is without a clean sheet this term looks to be a decent opportunity, perhaps a better one than odds of 2/1 would have us believe.