Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction, Tips, Preview

The first North London Derby of the 2024/25 Premier League season takes place at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Can the hosts bounce back by beating the team that can be described as their arch nemesis? Or will the visitors pick up another win at the home of their rivals? Read on for Tottenham vs Arsenal predictions.

Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction

For the Tottenham vs Arsenal match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-1 draw based on our analysis.

The visitors will be without a couple of key players on Sunday, so don’t expect them to run away with it, but they’re secure at the back, this we know, so we also shouldn’t expect the hosts to do too much damage.

Our predictions and picks for this Premier League fixture are as follows:

Pedro Porro Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 12/5 with bet365
James Maddison to be Booked @ 3/1 with bet365

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Tottenham vs Arsenal betting odds

See below the implied probabilities behind the match result odds, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.

Bet	Odds	Implied probability	Our adjusted probability	Difference
Tottenham	2/1	33.3%	31.3%	-2.0%
Arsenal	11/8	42.1%	38.1%	-4.0%
Draw	5/2	28.6%	30.6%	+2.0%

Tottenham vs Arsenal head-to-head statistics

When the teams last met, back at the end of the previous campaign, Arsenal won by three goals to two at this venue, taking a three-goal lead in the first half, before Spurs cut the deficit in the second half.

Spurs are now without a win against their bitter rivals in four attempts, with their last win coming at home back in 2022.

Tottenham vs Arsenal preview

This match will be played on 15/09/2024 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Kick off will be at 14:00 GMT.

The hosts have had a long time to stew on their loss at Newcastle before the international break and will likely be chomping at the bit to get back out there.

Postecoglou’s men went to St. James’ Park on the back of an easy win against Everton, but that didn’t prepare them well enough for what was a tough test, during which the Lilywhites looked a little toothless going forward. That doesn’t exactly bode well ahead of this fixture.

Fortunately for Sunday’s hosts, the visitors will be without a couple of key players. Declan Rice is suspended following his dismissal for kicking the ball away against Brighton, while captain Martin Odegaard is sidelined by injury.

Missing a couple of important players is far from ideal for the Gunners, who’re also looking to improve having only drawn last time out.

Tottenham vs Arsenal Betting tips

At the early prices ahead of the NLD, two player bets appeal. Let’s get stuck in.

Pedro Porro Over 0.5 Shots on Target

Despite the hosts having a fair few forwards, energetic (and often hot-headed) full-back Pedro Porro is currently the player in the Spurs squad with the most shots to his name.

The Spaniard certainly doesn’t shy away from getting forward and he’s always happy to pull the trigger, shooting no less than eight times this season, averaging 2.67 shots per 90 minutes.

Ever since becoming a regular for Spurs, Porro has been a clear offensive outlet, both in terms of crosses and his ability to let fly. He’s scored seven times in 53 appearances, averaging 0.14 goals per 90 minutes. Not bad for a supposed defender, though it’s fair to say that Porro doesn’t do too much defending.

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What’s more eye-catching is the fact that Porro, who turns 25 two days before this game, averages 0.52 shots on target (per 90) in a Spurs shirt.

If we take 0.52 and say that Porro has tested the opposing keeper in 52% of his appearances, we get odds of 0.92/1 (= 52% implied probability).

In other words, odds of 12/5 (29.4% implied probability) look chunky, especially as we’re talking about a player who loves to go for goal in big games, hitting the target last season against Chelsea (home and away), Aston Villa, West Ham (home and away), Newcastle and Manchester United.

James Maddison to be Booked

I’m also backing James Maddison to get booked here. Maddison is clearly a big player for Spurs and his creativity is an integral part of what Postecoglou is trying to do.

However, while his ability to make things happen in the final third often comes to the fore, so does his petulance. Maddison is no stranger to kicking out, pulling players down and generally throwing his toys out of the pram, which is why he’s familiar with the sight of a yellow card being waved his way.

With one booking in 2.6 games, we’ve already seen the Spurs midfielder lose his cool this season, while since the start of the 2022-23 campaign, he’s picked up an average of 0.29 cards per game. With 3/1 on offer, those stats will do for me.