There’s Premier League action on Monday night as Bournemouth and Southampton go head-to-head in an all south coast affair at Vitality Stadium.
Can the Saints pick the Cherries off and pick up a first league win of the season? Or will the hosts bounce back after two losses on the spin? Read on for our Bournemouth vs Southampton predictions.
Bournemouth vs Southampton prediction
For the Bournemouth vs Southampton match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 3-2 win for the hosts based on our analysis.
The Cherries have shown more than enough going forward to suggest that they can outscore the Saints here, but their lack of defensive solidity likely means that it won’t be entirely straightforward.
Our Bournemouth vs Southampton predictions and tips are:
Ben Brereton 1+ Shot on Target @ 10/11 with Betway
Jan Bednarek to be Booked @ 5/2 with Boylesports
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Bournemouth vs Southampton betting odds
The table below shows the implied probabilities behind the match result odds, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bournemouth to Win | 3/5 | 62.5% | 54.5% | -8.0% |
Southampton to Win | 9/2 | 18.2% | 21.3% | +2.9% |
Draw | 10/3 | 23.1% | 24.2% | +1.1% |
Bournemouth vs Southampton head-to-head statistics
This will be the first time that the pair have met competitively since the final few months of the 2022-23 Premier League season, when Bournemouth won by a goal to nil at St. Mary’s. During the same season, the Saints won 0-1 at this venue. Interestingly, each of the last five competitive renewals of this fixture have gone the way of the visiting team.
Bournemouth vs Southampton preview
This match will be played on 30/09/2024 at Vitality Stadium. Kick off will be at 20:00 GMT.
This is a big game for both teams, make no mistake about that. For the hosts, it’s all about taking advantage of what is a relatively large opportunity.
The Saints have struggled to get going since returning to the highest level of English football, while the Cherries have been playing well, so much so that they’ll want to capitalise here and put three points on the board.
The problem is that the hosts come into this game without a goal in two, so they’ll need to improve offensively, especially from an end-product point of view.
The visitors will also see this as a chance to pick up a positive result having taken a point from their match against relegation rivals Ipswich last weekend. There was clear promise to the way that Russel Martin’s men played against the Tractor Boys, while they’ve now gone two games without tasting defeat having beaten Everton in the EFL Cup (on penalties).
The big question is going to be whether the Saints can keep it tight at the back on their travels, as they were rather easy to breach when last venturing out on the road in the league.
Bournemouth vs Southampton Betting tips
In the early betting, there are two player angles that stand out the most. Here goes.
Ben Brereton 1+ Shot on Target
In terms of goals, Ben Brereton hasn’t exactly flourished for his new team, but he’s continued to show the same hunger and desire that made him a real threat during that short spell at Bramall Lane last season.
The forward has looked to be direct, shooting at regular intervals, registering nine shots during the early weeks of the campaign.
Averaging 2.35 shots per 90 minutes this season, for the Blades last term, Brereton averaged 2.77 shots and 1.30 shots on target per 90. Such numbers catch the eye ahead of this fixture.
Jan Bednarek to be Booked
Another angle of attack in the player betting sense is a bet on Southampton defender Jan Bednarek to go in the book.
No stranger to upsetting both opposition players and referees alike, Bednarek has been booked just once so far this season, but further cards aren’t likely to be far away.
After all, the Polish central defender picked up no fewer than 12 yellows last season, averaging 0.31 cards per game, while in the 2022-23 Premier League campaign, he collected an average of 0.27.
The Cherries have a few tricky customers in their forward line so it could be a tough evening for the visiting back-line, so don’t be surprised if Bednarek gets himself in trouble here. I certainly won’t be.
Recap - Bournemouth vs Southampton betting tips
To recap, our Bournemouth vs Southampton betting tips are as follows:
Ben Brereton 1+ Shot on Target @ 10/11 with Betway
Jan Bednarek to be Booked @ 5/2 with Boylesports
More Premier League betting tips:
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