If you were looking forward to another weekend of top-tier domestic action, you’re all out of luck as we’ve once again arrived at the international break. On Thursday evening, the UEFA Nations League is back.
From a betting point of view, a couple of games catch the eye, starting with Norway vs Slovenia, which takes place in the Norwegian capital of Oslo. Read on for our Norway vs Slovenia predictions and tips.
Norway vs Slovenia prediction
For the Norway vs Slovenia match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-1 draw based on our analysis.
Both teams recently performed somewhat similarly against the Austrians, with Slovenia drawing 1-1 and the Norwegians winning 2-1, so this could be quite a close game. The hosts are big favourites in the early betting, but don’t be surprised if the visitors hold their own in Oslo.
Our Norway vs Slovenia predictions and tips are:
Both Teams to Score @ 10/11 with Betfred
Benjamin Sesko to Score @ 3/1 with Boylesports
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Norway vs Slovenia betting odds
In the table below, you will find the implied probabilities behind the match result odds, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Norway to Win | 4/7 | 63.6% | 51.1% | -12.5% |
Slovenia to Win | 17/4 | 19% | 22.1% | +3.1% |
Draw | 3/1 | 25% | 27.3% | +2.3% |
Norway vs Slovenia head-to-head statistics
Back in 2022, the pair played each other not once but twice in the Nations League, drawing 0-0 in Norway, before the Slovenians won by two goals to one on home soil. The Norwegians have now gone three matches against Slovenia without winning.
Norway vs Slovenia preview
This match will be played on 10/10/2024 at Ullevaal Stadium in Oslo. Kick off will be at 19:45 GMT.
Despite having some fine attacking players in their squad, I’m thinking Arsenal’s Martin Odegaard, Man City’s Erling Haaland and Atletico's Alexander Sorloth, the Norwegians haven’t exactly shifted through the gears at the start of this Nations League campaign.
Life in League B started poorly as they came up short in Kazakhstan, not only failing to win but failing to score, despite kicking off that game as 1/4 favourites in the betting.
That disappointment on the road was followed by a win, with Thursday’s hosts improving to beat an Austria side at home, winning by two goals to one. With that under their belts, Ståle Solbakken’s men will be looking to kick on.
For the Slovenians, who impressed at Euro 2024 during the summer, making it out of the groups, taking Portugal all the way to penalties in the last 16, it’s been a decent start.
Thursday’s visitors were by no means outplayed by Austria on match-day one, drawing 1-1, while they improved on that effort to beat Kazakhstan by three goals to nil, with star forward Benjamin Sesko scoring a superbly taken hat-trick.
Norway vs Slovenia Betting tips
Two bets appeal looking at the early odds:
Both Teams to Score
We’ve seen enough from both teams during the early rounds of the UEFA Nations League campaign to suggest that both can cause problems in Oslo on Thursday night, so much so that betting on both to score stands out as a viable option at 10/11.
We know that the Norwegians have lots of offensive quality, that’s clear for all to see, and they likely will hurt teams as this campaign moves along. However, they’ve also shown clear weakness at the back, conceding in four out of six during 2024, keeping clean sheets against Kazakhstan and Kosovo. Hardly inspiring.
In each of their two games in this league, the Slovenians have shown that they can score goals, even if they did give up a few chances (and a goal) against the Austrians. The only time that they’ve failed to score since June 2023 was against England at the Euros, in a game where a 0-0 suited both.
Interestingly, both teams have scored five of Slovenia's last eight in all competitions, while three of Norway’s last four at home have contained goals for both teams. I’ll be betting that both teams score here, that’s for sure.
Benjamin Sesko
At odds of 3/1, I’ll also be betting that Slovenia’s Benjamin Sesko can find the net. Anyone who read my previews during Euro 2024 will know that I’m a big fan of Sesko, who really does look destined for the top.
The powerful, direct forward has started this Nations League campaign in hot form, scoring four goals in the first two games, while he comes here having scored four goals in his last three games for club side RB Leipzig, including a Champions League brace against Italian giants Juventus.
For club and country, Sesko has scored eight in his last seven. For Leipzig this season, in all competitions, he’s averaging no less than 1.07 goals per 90 minutes. Such an average makes 3/1 look very generous indeed.
Recap - Norway vs Slovenia betting tips
To recap, our Norway vs Slovenia betting tips are as follows:
Both Teams to Score @ 10/11 with Betfred
Benjamin Sesko to Score @ 3/1 with Boylesports
More Nations League betting tips:
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