It was nice to get back to winning ways from a horse racing point of view on Saturday evening, with Papa Don’t Preach doing the job well at Chelmsford, confirming my suspicions that the early odds were too generous.
As is often the case, Sunday is a much quieter day in the world of British horse racing, with just two meetings (at Goodwood and Ffos Las) for bettors to get stuck into, plus there’s action at Naas and Cork.
Sunday’s free horse racing tips
See the table below for today’s tips, where they run, when they run, the odds available, complete with our adjusted fair odds.
Horse | Track | Time | Odds | Fair Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dashing Darcey | Goodwood | 16:45 | 11/2 | +2.8% |
16:45 Goodwood - Dashing Darcey to Win
I’ll begin by saying that today is a tricky day, where value seems to be in short supply. In other words, the early market seems to have most things right, leaving us with very few edges indeed.
However, looking at the penultimate race at Goodwood, I can’t help but think that Dashing Darcey warrants a tiny bit more respect than he’s currently getting.
Lightly raced and perhaps yet to be fully exposed, Roger Varian’s runner returned from a break to finish an encouraging second at Haydock last time out, and with that under his belt, could do even better here.
This race is no stronger, so if he strips fitter for that effort at Haydock, he should go close. It bodes well that the testing ground seemed to suit last time out, while that effort tells me that he’s likely got a race of this nature in him from a mark of 92, which probably isn’t his ceiling handicap wise.
Roger Varian has had his string in decent form of late, while he’s no stranger to having his horses run well at Goodwood, with 35% of his runners placing at the Sussex venue (in the last year).
It’s positive to report that he’s finished in front of a couple of these before, while he looks well weighted in this field in general.
Ultimately, if he takes even the slightest step forward on what will be his second start since having a break, then he almost certainly won’t be far away.
Current market leader (at the time of writing), Alpha Circus is being supported as if he’ll definitely follow up his recent success, but he’s up in the weights, while this is tougher, so I’d say he’s far from guaranteed to dominate.
For my money, Varian’s colt ticks more boxes than most here, definitely ticking a few more boxes than early odds of 11/2 suggest. At such odds, I’ll be betting on him to come home in front.
Recap - Sunday’s horse racing betting tips
To confirm, Sunday’s horse racing tips are:
16:45 Goodwood - Dashing Darcey to Win @ 11/2 with Betfred
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