As the Premier League returns on Saturday afternoon, Southampton and Leicester go head-to-head at St Mary’s, where the struggling hosts will be looking to bounce back after yet another defeat last time out.
Can the Saints get the better of one of the teams that also came up recently? Read on for our Southampton vs Leicester predictions and tips.
Southampton vs Leicester prediction
For the Southampton vs Leicester match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 0-1 win for Leicester based on our analysis.
Neither team has thrived since returning to the Premier League, but the visitors have offered quite a bit more in the final third, which could be what gets them over the line here.
Our Southampton vs Leicester predictions and tips are as follows:
Facundo Buonanotte Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 10/11 with Betway
Jannik Vestergaard to Receive a Card @ 11/4 with Betfred
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Southampton vs Leicester betting odds
In the table below, you’ll see the implied probabilities behind the match result odds, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Southampton to Win | 5/4 | 44.4% | 39.2% | -5.2% |
Leicester to Win | 2/1 | 33.3% | 32.2% | -1.1% |
Draw | 5/2 | 28.6% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
Southampton vs Leicester head-to-head statistics
Having both been in the Championship, the pair met twice during the previous campaign. Leicester won on both occasions, winning by four goals to one at St. Mary’s, before winning 5-0 at home. When the pair last met in the Premier League, back in early 2023, Southampton won 1-0 in front of a home crowd.
Southampton vs Leicester preview
This match will be played on 19/10/2024 at St Mary’s. Kick off will be at 15:00 GMT.
As was expected by most, the Saints have underwhelmed on their return. Russell Martin’s men are without a league win this season, losing six out of seven.
Let’s face it, they were always going to struggle, especially in the defensive third, but Southampton fans may have been hoping for more offensively. Conceding too many goals is an issue, clearly, but it is perhaps their lack of forward power that is really costing them.
Having scored just four goals, the Saints are the lowest scorers in the division as things stand. Therein lies the problem.
For the visitors, goals have been a bit easier to come by, which is why they’re currently in a more healthy league position than Saturday’s hosts, who’re languishing in 19th. The visitors find themselves up in 15th, three points clear of the dreaded drop-zone.
Having scored nine goals, it’s fair to say that the Foxes have threatened much more than the hosts, so we probably shouldn’t be surprised if they make more offensive headway in this fixture.
Southampton vs Leicester Betting tips
From a value betting point of view, two bets appeal ahead of this clash:
Facundo Buonanotte Over 0.5 Shots on Target
At a shade under even money, I’m finding it hard not to side with Facundo Buonanotte to register a shot on target here. The Argentine, who is on loan from Brighton, has arguably been Leicester’s best offensive player so far, and having scored last time out, he’s likely to fancy himself against weak opposition.
Buonanotte has scored twice in the league so far, notching against Bournemouth and Aston Villa, while he’s been shooting a decent amount too, averaging 1.97 shots per game.
He’s taken five shots in his last two appearances for the Foxes and having registered two shots on target last time out, he really should be licking his lips at the prospect of going up against Southampton’s poor defence.
Jannik Vestergaard to Receive a Card
Also, at odds of 11/4, the fit again Jannik Vestergaard stands out as a must-bet to get booked.
The Danish defender hasn’t played in the league since getting booked against Fulham, but he’s since regained full fitness and having played both games for Denmark during the Nations League break, should be back in the fold here.
Since the start of the season, Vestergaard has made six appearances for club and country, picking up two yellow cards. Last season, the hard-hitting central defender went in the book no less than 13 times, collecting an average of 0.31 cards per 90 minutes.
0.31 cards per 90 minutes translates as being booked 31% of the time. This translates to fractional odds of just under 9/4 (= 30.8% implied probability), making odds of 11/4 look a little generous.
Recap - Southampton vs Leicester betting tips
In summary, Sporting Post’s Southampton vs Leicester betting tips are:
Facundo Buonanotte Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 10/11 with Betway
Jannik Vestergaard to Receive a Card @ 11/4 with Betfred
More Premier League betting tips:
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