Recon Mission couldn’t quite get going enough to challenge for the win last night, finishing a respectable third at what turned out to be a decent each-way price.
We move on to Tuesday’s action, and the betting lens focuses on the racing at Newcastle this evening. Read on for our free horse racing tips.
Today’s free horse racing tips
See the table below for today’s tips, where they run, when they run, the odds available, complete with our adjusted fair odds.
Horse | Track | Time | Odds | Fair Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Muddy Lynn | Newcastle | 20:00 | 11/2 | +4.3% |
20:00 Newcastle - Muddy Lynn (each-way)
The final race at Newcastle this evening is a trappy little affair, a Class 6 race that in ways is very much bottom-of-the-barrel stuff. However, at odds of 8/1, Muddy Lynn makes a reasonable amount of each-way appeal.
To be honest, looking at the field here, I’d price the mare less leniently, as the table above suggests.
For starters, she stayed on well from the rear in a C&D race won by the re-opposing Quercus last time out.
That rival is fancied in the early betting, but he’s gone up in the weights and doesn’t exactly have a profile that screams follow-up winner. Moreover, he’ll likely have a bit more company for the lead today, which could prompt more of a pace collapse, leaving it more open to a close-type, such as Muddy Lynn.
Seb Spencer’s mare won over course and distance back in June of last year, doing so from 5 lbs higher in the handicap, so it’s probably fair to say that she’s well handicapped.
What’s more, her trainer has a decent strike rate when putting Alex Jary in the saddle. Jary has a 27.27% strike rate for Spencer in the last 12 months, while he has a very eye-catching combined win/place strike rate of 73% for the trainer, which cannot be ignored.
Finally, Jary’s 5 lb claim leaves her looking very well weighted ahead of this weak race, so I really won’t be surprised if she makes her presence felt at the business end, so much so that odds of 8/1 are worth taking each-way.
Recap - Tuesday’s horse racing betting tips
Tuesday’s horse racing tips are as follows:
20:00 Newcastle - Muddy Lynn (each-way) @ 8/1 with Boylesports
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