Following Thursday night’s loss in Ireland, it’s looking a little desperate for the Finnish boys, who appear to be staring down the barrel as far as UEFA Nations League relegation is concerned.
Back on home soil in Helsinki, can the team without a win in six competitive games improve their fortunes? Read on for our Finland vs Greece predictions and tips.
Finland vs Greece prediction
For the Finland vs Greece match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-2 draw based on our analysis.
From an offensive point of view, the hosts created plenty the other night and were unlucky not to score, but they also looked very open at the back, as they did when playing in Greece, so this could be a case of goals all round.
Sporting Post’s Finland vs Greece predictions and tips:
Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/8 with Betfred
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Finland vs Greece betting odds
Below you will see the probabilities implied by the match result odds ahead of this match, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Finland to Win | 19/10 | 34.5% | 33.1% | -1.4% |
Greece to Win | 7/5 | 41.7% | 35.3% | -6.4% |
Draw | 11/5 | 31.3% | 31.6% | +0.4% |
Finland vs Greece head-to-head statistics
When the teams met earlier in the campaign, in the historic city of Athens, the Greeks ran out relatively easy winners, scoring three goals and conceding none. Prior to that, the pair met in 2019, with the game ending 2-1 in favour of the Greeks.
Finland vs Greece preview
This match will be played on 17/11/2024 at Helsinki Olympic Stadium. Kick off will be at 17:00 GMT.
Try as they might, it wasn’t to be for Markku Kanerva’s men on Thursday night. They huffed, and they puffed - missing a penalty for good measure - but they couldn’t blow down the house of the Irish, who after taking a first-half lead, somehow stood strong.
As mentioned above, the Fins are without a win in six competitive games, all six of which they’ve lost. Sure, there were positives to that effort in Dublin, but the job now is to turn those positives into tangibles, which for this Finland team, is clearly easier said than done.
For the Greeks, any hopes of a second upset were quickly dashed by a fast-starting England, who through Ollie Watkins, scored early in Athens on Thursday night, before running out comfortable winners.
After that 0-3 loss on home soil, it’s back out on the road for a team that remains in a healthy position. The Greeks sit second, behind the English on goal difference alone, so there’s no need to dwell on Thursday’s result.
Finland vs Greece Betting tips
Looking at the early odds here, I’m drawn to two bets.
Over 2.5 Goals
At odds of 13/8, I can’t help but conclude that ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ is a rather appealing bet. The theme for the Fins in recent games has been all about creating plenty and giving plenty away, so I’m just not sure that the early market has it right here.
Of course, that game in Dublin on Thursday night produced just a single goal, but it also produced several chances and could easily have contained three or four goals. Prior to that, Finland’s games against England and Ireland conceded four goals and three goals respectively, with the Fins scoring on both occasions.
The Greeks, prior to their defeat against the Three Lions, have been in decent scoring form in the Nations League and they’ll likely fancy themselves to get on the attack in Helsinki, so we should see an open game.
Throw in the fact that three or more goals have been scored in each of Finland’s last five home games and odds of 13/8 really do look a little too bloated to ignore.
Joel Pohjanpalo Anytime Scorer
I’m also going to back Finland’s number-one goal-getter Joal Pohjanpalo to bounce back after missing from the spot on Thursday evening.
The forward, who scored for fun in Italy’s Serie B last season, has adapted to Serie A nicely this time around, scoring a chunky average 0.41 goals per 90 minutes for Venezia in the Italian top flight, while he’s a relatively regular scorer for his nation too.
Scoring in Finland’s last home game, Pohjanpalo has one goal in 180 minutes during the current UEFA Nations League campaign, while he scored twice during Euro 2024 qualifying too.
Since 2022, in competitive games, the 30-year-old has notched an average of 0.40 goals per 90 minutes in a Finland shirt, which isn’t bad going. During that time, he’s averaged 2.72 shots per 90 minutes. Such numbers make odds of 10/3 look a little too generous if you ask me.
Recap - Finland vs Greece betting tips
In summary, our Finland vs Greece betting tips are:
Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/8 with Betfred
Joel Pohjanpalo Anytime Scorer @ 10/3 with Betfred
More UEFA Nations League betting tips:
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