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On Wednesday evening, there’s UEFA Champions League action in the Austrian city of Graz, where Sturm Graz and Girona will go head-to-head.
After very nearly holding Dortmund to a 0-0 draw recently, can the Austrians continue to show that they can frustrate some of Europe’s top teams? Or will the in-form Spanish visitors flourish? Read on for our Sturm Graz vs Girona predictions and tips.
Sturm Graz vs Girona prediction
For the Sturm Graz vs Girona match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-0 win for Sturm Graz based on our analysis.
Sturm Graz were a little unlucky when last in UCL action, and they certainly played well against Dortmund, so they may just thrive against a Girona side that is not only missing some key personnel, but that struggles for away-day goals.
Our Sturm Graz vs Girona predictions and picks:
Girona to Score Under 0.5 Goals @ 7/2 with Betfred
Otar Kiteishvili to Score @ 4/1 with BoyleSports
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Sturm Graz vs Girona betting odds
The table below shows the probabilities implied by the match result odds ahead of this match, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sturm Graz to Win | 11/5 | 31.3% | 33.4% | +2.1% |
Girona to Win | 21/20 | 48.8% | 37.3% | -11.5% |
Draw | 5/2 | 28.6% | 29.3% | +0.5% |
Sturm Graz vs Girona head-to-head statistics
There is no head-to-head record for this fixture. This will be the first ever meeting between the two teams.
Sturm Graz vs Girona preview
This match will be played on 27/11/2024 at Wörthersee Stadion. Kick off will be at 17:45 GMT.
From a results standpoint, it’s been rather bleak for Sturm Graz in the UEFA Champions League this season. The Austrians have lost four out of four since qualifying, scoring just one goal, and own goal, conceding six at the other end.
However, let’s face it, they probably haven’t been as poor as a return of zero points suggests. They dug deep and frustrated a very strong Dortmund team last time out, keeping it at 0-0 until stoppage time, while they haven’t been disgraced in any of their games, not really.
Interestingly, of the other 35 teams in the competition this season, only 16 have conceded fewer goals, so from a defensive point of view, the hosts are probably a good bit better than their position suggests, so we probably shouldn’t be too surprised if they do a good job of nullifying a Girona side that struggles to score goals on the road.
For the Spaniards, the current Champions League campaign hasn’t gone that much better. Sure, they beat Slovan Bratislava on home soil on match-day three, but they’ve lost each of their other three, receiving a battering in Eindhoven when last in UCL action.
The visitors have done slightly better than their hosts from a goals scored point of view, but they’ve also performed worse in terms of goals conceded, so you could quite easily argue that they’re slightly less likely to win this game than the early odds suggest.
Sturm Graz vs Girona Betting tips
Two bets appeal from a value point of view.
Girona to Score Under 0.5 Goals
First up, at odds of 7/2, I like the look of an offensive failure for the visitors. As touched on above, the hosts really don’t look too shabby at the back. Considering that they’ve faced both Dortmund and Sporting, both of whom have fearsome forward lines, the fact that they’ve conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game in the UCL this season isn’t too bad.
Moreover, when they played Club Brugge at home earlier in the campaign, they were probably a little unlucky not to keep a clean sheet, conceding just 0.68 xG.
Furthermore, the visitors really do struggle to deliver their best in an offensive sense when playing away from home. They’ll head into this game having scored four goals last time out, but that was at home. On the road, it really has been a different story.
Failing to score in each of their last two away games in the Champions League, Michel’s men have scored just two goals in each of their last four away LaLiga games, posting rather discouraging xG totals of 0.19, 0.60, 0.65 and 0.75. Hardly inspiring.
To be honest, there’s quite simply enough to suggest that a home clean sheet is more likely than odds of 7/2 suggest, so such a bet (at such a price) offers value for money.
Otar Kiteishvili to Score
I also like the look of home player Otar Kiteishvili to find the net. The offensively minded midfielder has scored six goals for Sturm this season and is very much the man tasked with getting forward and supporting main forward Mika Biereth, who is likely to be the main focus for Girona’s central defenders, leaving the Georgian to potentially roam free.
Not only has Kiteishvili scored six goals, averaging 0.42 goals per 90 minutes, but he’s averaging 2.15 shots per 90 minutes, as well as 0.83 shots on target. In the Champions League, he’s averaging 1.05 shots per 90 and 0.70 shots on target. Such stats make odds of 4/1 look a little inflated.
Recap - Sturm Graz vs Girona betting tips
To recap, our Sturm Graz vs Girona betting tips are as follows:
Girona to Score Under 0.5 Goals @ 7/2 with Betfred
Otar Kiteishvili to Score @ 4/1 with BoyleSports
More Champions League betting tips:
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