Everton vs Chelsea Prediction, Tips, Preview

On Sunday afternoon, Everton and Chelsea will clash in the Premier League, meeting at Goodison Park, for the first time since December of last year, when the Toffees picked up a surprising win.

Can the Blues take their festive revenge on Sunday? Or will Sean Dyche’s men have another surprise in store for the visitors? Read on for our Everton vs Chelsea predictions and tips.

Everton vs Chelsea prediction

For the Everton vs Chelsea match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-0 win for the visitors based on our analysis.

The Toffees have picked up some pleasing results of late, but they remain offensively ineffective on a regular basis, so it’s not difficult to see the visitors grinding out the win.

Our Everton vs Chelsea predictions and tips:

• Under 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 with Betfred

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Everton vs Chelsea betting odds

The table below shows the probabilities implied by the match result odds ahead of this match, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.

Everton vs Chelsea head-to-head statistics

When the pair last met, in West London back in April, Chelsea ran riot, scoring six goals without reply, with Cole Palmer bagging four himself. When they last played at Goodison Park, the Toffees won 2-0.

Everton vs Chelsea preview

This match will be played on 22/12/2024 at Goodison Park. Kick off will be at 14:00 GMT.

For a while, back at the start of the season, Sean Dyche’s position as Everton manager looked highly unstable, so much so that he was strongly fancied (by the betting market) as the first manager to get the chop.

The man known for his no-nonsense approach remains in the job, and since the Toffees limped out of the traps in August, they’ve picked up the pace, improving to find themselves three points clear of the bottom three as we head into the thick of the festive period.

In terms of recent form, the Toffees have ticked along quite nicely, losing only one of their last five, beating Wolves at home recently, before drawing with Arsenal away from home last time out, which should mean that they’re feeling confident ahead of this match.

While the hosts hover above the drop-zone, the Blues have positioned themselves at the other end of the table. In fact, they’ve entered the title race, thanks largely to a five-game winning run.

Enzo Maresca’s men will go to Goodison Park having lost none of their last eight league fixtures, six of which they’ve won. They’ve also won each of their last three travelling Premier League matches.

Everton vs Chelsea Betting tips

From a value point of view, just one bet appeals.

Under 2.5 Goals

It’s no secret that the visitors come into this game in fine scoring form. Maresca’s men have hammered home the goals in recent games, showing no shortage of final-third quality, scoring two or more goals in each of their last seven in all competitions.

However, despite Chelsea’s impressive scoring form, I cannot help but think that there’s some recency bias built into the early prices ahead of this one, especially when it comes to the goal markets. At odds of 6/5, ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ looks like a value bet as far as I’m concerned.

Plenty of Chelsea’s recent matches have been filled with goals, with only one of their last seven containing less than three goals.

For the hosts, though, it’s been a slightly different story. Three of their last five matches have ended goalless, and not by accident. What’s more, the Toffees have either failed to score or kept a clean sheet in all but one of their last nine games. More than three goals were scored in just two of those nine.

Here are a few other stats that makes ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ look like a decent bet all the time odds of 6/5 are on offer:

• Everton rank among the five best Premier League teams for goals conceded at home this season.

• Chelsea rank among the five best Premier League teams for goals conceded on the road this season.

• Everton are easily the worst Premier League team in terms of expected goals created this season.

• An average of just 2.38 expected goals have been created at Goodison Park this season, which is the lowest in the division.

At the end of the day, there’s reason to believe that a relatively low-scoring game is a little more likely than the early odds would have us believe, thus opting for ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ may just be the smart move.

Recap - Everton vs Chelsea betting tips

Here’s a quick reminder of a our Everton vs Chelsea betting tips:

Under 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 with Betfred

More Premier League betting tips:

• Premier League Football Accumulator Tips Today 21/12/2024

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