The FA Cup action bleeds into Sunday, when another handful of third-round ties are set to unfold, including at St. Mary’s, where Southampton and Swansea will do battle.
Can the Saints improve now that they’re facing Championship opposition? Or will those in attendance on the south coast endure another disappointing outing? Read on for our Southampton vs Swansea predictions, tips and preview.
Southampton vs Swansea prediction
For the Southampton vs Swansea match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-2 draw based on our analysis.
This is an opportunity for the struggling Saints to improve offensively, but they’ve been so poor at the back, so don’t be surprised if the Swans also have a serious say in the final third.
Our Southampton vs Swansea predictions and tips:
Swansea to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ 2/1 with Betfred
Florian Bianchini to Score @ 7/2 with Betfred
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Southampton vs Swansea betting odds
The table below shows the probabilities implied by the match result odds ahead of this match, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Southampton to Win | 4/5 | 55.6% | 47.1% | -8.5% |
Swansea to Win | 16/5 | 23.8% | 25.2% | +1.4% |
Draw | 3/1 | 25.0% | 27.7% | +2.7% |
Southampton vs Swansea head-to-head statistics
As both were in the Championship last season, the pair met home and away, with the Saints winning 5-0 at this venue, also winning by three goals to one in Swansea. They also faced off in the FA Cup back in 2022, drawing 1-1, before Southampton eventually won by three goals to two after extra time.
Southampton vs Swansea preview
This match will be played on date at St. Mary’s Stadium. Kick off will be at 16:30 GMT.
Let’s face it, however we dress it up, it’s been nothing short of abysmal from Southampton on their return to the Premier League, so much so that this game will likely be a welcome distraction from what can only be described as near certain relegation.
When Spurs visited St Mary’s and cruised to a 5-0 first-half lead just before Christmas, Russell Martin was given his marching orders, though things haven’t exactly improved since Croat Ivan Juric took charge.
The Saints come into this FA Cup fixture off the back of another humbling in front of a home crowd, with Brentford running riot, scoring five goals in the process. There can’t be many Saints players brimming with confidence ahead of this clash, that’s for sure.
In contrast, there likely will be plenty of confidence flying around the visiting changing room, with the Swans having picked up some decent wins over the festive period.
Sure, the team from Wales has since gone off the boil a little, but they bounced back from their New Year’s Day defeat against Portsmouth with a decent draw against West Brom last time out and will surely be chomping at the bit to get at what is a dreadful Southampton defence.
Southampton vs Swansea betting tips
Two bets appeal ahead of Sunday’s FA Cup clash at St Mary’s.
Swansea to Score Over 1.5 Goals
Sure, the Swans are up against Premier League opposition, but they’re up against what is quite possibly the least resistant top-level back line that’s ever been, so they should show absolutely no fear offensively.
Moreover, as the Saints are desperate to make this game against second-tier opponents pay, there’s likely to be space for the visitors to break into, and they’ve certainly thrived in similar away games in the league this season, scoring twice away against the likes of Plymouth, Derby and Oxford.
Even when Sunday’s hosts faced Championship opposition at home in the EFL Cup, they conceded twice and conceded an abundance of chances, beating Stoke 3-2, while poor Premier League teams, such as Leicester, have also scored multiple goals at St. Mary’s this term.
Florian Bianchini to Score
I also quite like the look of Florian Bianchini as a goalscorer at odds of 7/2. The Frenchman hasn’t exactly set the Championship alight this season, but he’s looked lively at times, while his underlying numbers are far from poor.
In terms of goals per 90 minutes, Bianchini has notched 0.26 this season, which isn’t bad, and you could argue that he’s been unlucky not to enhance that figure. He’s averaging 0.37 xG per 90 minutes, which catches the eye.
No Swansea player averages more shots on target per 90 minutes than Bianchini, who will likely be relishing the opportunity to test himself against a Premier League defence that is very low on confidence right now.
Recap - Southampton vs Swansea betting tips
Here’s a quick recap of our Southampton vs Swansea betting tips:
Swansea to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ 2/1 with Betfred
Florian Bianchini to Score @ 7/2 with Betfred
More FA Cup betting tips:
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Author
With over 12 years of experience, Bradley Gibbs is a seasoned sports betting writer and tipster specialising in uncovering value bets across football, horse racing, tennis, and golf. His extensive coverage of these sports has been featured on numerous websites and in The Racing & Football Outlook, a renowned UK betting publication. Bradley's expertise lies in identifying betting edges and delivering insightful, data-driven content for informed wagering.
With over 12 years of experience, Bradley Gibbs is a seasoned sports betting writer and tipster specialising in uncovering value bets across football, horse racing, tennis, and golf. His extensive coverage of these sports has been featured on numerous websites and in The Racing & Football Outlook, a renowned UK betting publication. Bradley's expertise lies in identifying betting edges and delivering insightful, data-driven content for informed wagering.
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