Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction, Tips, Preview

Following the weekend’s Premier League action, it’s back down to business in the EFL Cup for Newcastle and Arsenal on Wednesday night, and with a place in the first domestic final of the campaign, the pressure is on.

Can the Magpies defend their first-leg lead? Or will the Gunners come from behind to reach Wembley? Read on for our Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction, tips and preview.

Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction

For the Newcastle vs Arsenal match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-1 draw based on our analysis.

Sure, the Gunners were rampant at the weekend, but we shouldn’t expect them to deliver the same sort of performance away against a Newcastle side that will do everything possible to be defiant. It could quite easily be a frustrating night for the visitors.

Our Newcastle vs Arsenal predictions and tips:

• Under 2.5 Goals @ EVS with Betfred

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Newcastle vs Arsenal betting odds

The table below shows the probabilities implied by the match result odds ahead of this match, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences.

Newcastle vs Arsenal head-to-head statistics

This will be the third renewal of this fixture during the 2024/25 campaign. Back in November, Newcastle beat Arsenal by a goal to nil in front of a home crowd, before winning by two goals to nil in the first leg of this EFL Cup semi final back in December.

Newcastle vs Arsenal preview

This match will be played on 06/02/2025 at St. James' Park. Kick off will be at 20:00 GMT.

Having ended 2024 on a high, beating Manchester United away from home without ever really getting out of second gear, the Magpies continued to fly high at the start of 2025, picking up wins in three different competitions before January 15th.

However, despite being on a rather impressive winning run, they came crashing down when hosting Bournemouth a few weeks back, with the Cherries very much bursting the bubble at St. James’ Park.

Fortunately, a routine win against strugglers Southampton followed, though Eddie Howe’s men couldn’t use that victory as a platform from which to build at the weekend, tasting defeat against Fulham. However, they will have had this huge game in mind, so maybe we shouldn’t judge them too harshly for losing that one.

For the Gunners, it was all smiles at the weekend, with Mikel Arteta’s men running away with a home game against Manchester City, scoring five goals on their way to a resounding win.

That win against the Citizens came after the Gunners secured their UEFA Champions League knockout sport thanks to an away win against Girona, which followed a hard-fought road win against Wolves the previous weekend.

Having lost the first leg by two goals to nil, the visitors do have a bit of a mountain to climb on Wednesday night, though they will at least head into this game with their tails up off the back of four straight wins.

Newcastle vs Arsenal betting tips

Head of what should be a tense affair at St. James’ Park, just one bet appeals from a value point of view.

Under 2.5 Goals

After the Gunners smashed five in against a sorry-looking City, there will be those who expect Mikel Arteta’s men to turn the tide in this EFL Cup semi-final, though I wouldn’t be too quick to assume that we’ll see Arsenal get the job done in similarly high-scoring fashion.

For starters, that big weekend win came on home soil, while despite scoring five goals, Wednesday’s visitors created only 1.04 expected goals, which tells us that they weren’t exactly creating high-quality chances for fun. In other words, a repeat is far from on the cards.

As we saw in the first leg of this semi final, the Magpies are happy to sit and soak up pressure, and they’re quite good at doing so. Moreover, as they already have a two-goal lead, the hosts are likely to be even more happy to batten down the hatches, so any sort of cavalier approach from Eddie Howe’s men is incredibly unlikely.

Let’s face it, it won’t be the first time that the Geordies make life tough for the Gunners at home having already won 1-0 at St. James’ Park earlier in the season.

The hosts will be looking to hold what they have, an approach that lends itself to a low-scoring encounter. To be honest, given the circumstances here, ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ looks a little generously priced. While even-money is on offer, take it.

Recap - Newcastle vs Arsenal betting tips

Let’s recap our Newcastle vs Arsenal betting tips:

Under 2.5 Goals @ EVS with Betfred

More EFL Cup betting tips:

• Liverpool vs Tottenham Prediction, Tips, Preview

When betting on the EFL Cup, please make sure to use a legal and trusted betting sites. Check out our handy guide to best football betting sites.