Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

Aston Villa welcome Chelsea to Villa Park for what promises to be a captivating Premier League clash, with the hosts boasting an impressive run of just one defeat in their last 14 home matches whilst Chelsea arrive struggling with their away form.

The Villans enter the match buoyed by a spirited 2-2 draw against league leaders Liverpool, whilst Chelsea look to bounce back from a concerning 3-0 defeat at Brighton that highlighted their recent defensive frailties.

Both sides face significant selection challenges, with Villa missing key defender Pau Torres through injury, while Chelsea's attacking options are limited by the absences of Nicolas Jackson and Noni Madueke, setting the stage for an intriguing tactical battle between Unai Emery and Enzo Maresca's sides.

With Villa unbeaten in their last 13 home matches across all competitions and Chelsea winless in their last six away fixtures, this Premier League encounter could prove pivotal for both teams' aspirations this season.

Aston Villa vs. Chelsea prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Aston Villa vs Chelsea matchup, our predictive model gives the Villa a 70% chance of defeating the Blues.

Aston Villa: 70% win probability

Strong defensive record (40 goals conceded in 26 matches, averaging 1.54 per game)
Consistent point accumulation (39 points from 26 matches, maintaining top-half position)
Resilient drawing ability (9 draws, joint-third highest in league, showing ability to avoid defeats)

Chelsea: 30% win probability

Inconsistent form (Recent form LWLWD shows vulnerability)
Defensive fragility (34 goals conceded, higher than top-4 teams)
Away performance concerns (Only 12 wins in 25 matches, indicating struggles on the road)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.

Aston Villa vs. Chelsea odds

Here are the latest odds for this Premier League fixture as Aston Villa welcome Chelsea to Villa Park on Saturday, February 22.

	Aston Villa	Chelsea	Draw
Match Result	3/2 (via Betway UK)	8/5 (via Betway UK)	13/5 ( via Betway UK)

Aston Villa vs. Chelsea preview

A highly anticipated Premier League clash awaits as Aston Villa welcome Chelsea to Villa Park for what promises to be an enthralling Saturday evening encounter.

The Villans enter the match following an impressive 2-2 draw against league leaders Liverpool, where Ollie Watkins and Youri Tielemans demonstrated their attacking prowess with well-taken goals.

Chelsea, meanwhile, are experiencing a concerning dip in form, having suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat to Brighton and remaining winless in their last six away fixtures.

Villa's home record has been particularly formidable, with just one defeat in their last 14 home matches, coming against Arsenal, while maintaining an impressive 13-match unbeaten run across all competitions at Villa Park.

The Blues' manager Enzo Maresca faces mounting pressure, with his side struggling to find consistency and dealing with significant injury concerns, including the absences of Nicolas Jackson, Wesley Fofana, and Benoît Badiashile.

Villa's in-form striker Ollie Watkins, who has scored in his last three home appearances, will be looking to exploit Chelsea's vulnerable defence, which has managed just one clean sheet since Christmas.

The historical context adds intrigue to this fixture, with Chelsea unbeaten in their last three league visits to Villa Park, including a convincing 3-0 victory in their most recent meeting in December.

Both sides have demonstrated their attacking capabilities this season, but defensive frailties have been evident, with Villa conceding in their last six matches and Chelsea shipping 12 goals in their previous six outings.

Given the current form and circumstances, this match has all the ingredients for an exciting, high-scoring affair, with a 2-2 draw looking a likely outcome as both teams continue their pursuit of European qualification.

Aston Villa vs. Chelsea betting tips

Aston Villa Double Chance (Win or Draw) (11/20)

Chelsea @ Aston Villa

Chelsea's away form has been particularly concerning, with the Blues failing to win in their last six road fixtures.

Villa Park has been a fortress for Unai Emery's side, with only two defeats in their previous 21 home league matches.

The hosts have shown remarkable consistency at home, drawing seven and winning six of their Premier League fixtures this season.

Chelsea's road record against teams in the top half has been particularly poor this campaign.

Villa's robust home form and Chelsea's travelling troubles make this a compelling selection.

Ollie Watkins to Score Anytime (8/5)

Chelsea @ Aston Villa

Watkins has been in scintillating form, finding the net in his last three home appearances.

The England international has amassed 23 goal contributions across all competitions this term.

His record against Chelsea is particularly noteworthy, with goals in two of his last four Premier League encounters against the Blues.

Chelsea's defence has shown vulnerability on the road this season, presenting opportunities for clinical strikers.

Watkins' current form and confidence levels make him a prime candidate to continue his scoring run.

Both Teams to Score (3/4)

Chelsea @ Aston Villa

Key stats

1
Chelsea (6th) sits 3 positions above Aston Villa (9th) in the Premier League table
2
Both teams are level on points (43 vs 39) with Chelsea having played one match fewer
3
Chelsea's recent form (LWLWD) shows more consistency than Villa's (DDLDD), who haven't won in their last 5 matches
4
Chelsea have a superior goal difference (+13) compared to Villa's (-3), scoring 47 goals to Villa's 37