Eight UEFA Europa League fixtures will take place on Thursday evening, one of which sees Athletic Bilbao and AS Roma clash at Estadio de San Mames.
Finely poised after the first leg, which saw Thursday’s visitors edge ahead in Rome, winning by two goals to one, there’s plenty to play for in Bilbao, where both teams will likely still fancy themselves to progress. Read on for our Athletic Bilbao vs AS Roma betting tips and best value bets.
Athletic Bilbao vs AS Roma betting odds
Ahead of this game, the table below shows the probabilities implied by the odds for a selection of markets, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences to indicate whether there’s value or not on offer.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
Athletic Bilbao to Win | 10/11 | 52.4% | 47.2% | -5.2% |
AS Roma to Win | 3/1 | 25.0% | 24.4% | -0.6% |
Draw | 13/5 | 27.8% | 28.4% | +0.6% |
Both Teams to Score | 10/11 | 52.4% | 54.5% | +2.1% |
Both Teams to Score - NO | 10/11 | 52.4% | 45.5% | -6.9% |
Over 2.5 Goals | 21/20 | 48.8% | 50.1% | +1.3% |
Under 2.5 Goals | 8/11 | 57.9% | 49.9% | -8.0% |
Athletic Bilbao vs AS Roma value betting tips
This game takes place on 13/13/2025 at Estadio de San Mames. Kick off will be at 17:45 GMT.
I like the look of two bets as these two get down to business at the wonderful San Mames, which interestingly, will host the final this season, providing the hosts with extra motivation to go all the way.
Both Teams to Score
There’s everything still to fight for in this one, and as was the case last week, I expect to see two decent teams going for it. The visitors will likely take a more cautious approach than the hosts, but we can definitely expect to see the Romans get forward on the break, which they did to good effect last week.
During the first leg, we saw both teams create chances, and both showed the necessary offensive quality to score goals. Personally, I’m not convinced that this is being reflected enough by the early market, making ‘Both Teams to Score’ stand out at the prices.
At home, the hosts will definitely push forward, and they’ve certainly got the final-third quality. The likes of Alex Berenguer, Nico Williams, Inaki Williams and Oihan Sancet, all of whom have delivered lots in terms of goals and assists this season, can definitely do some damage against a Roma backline that is without a clean sheet away in Europe this season.
Unfortunately for the hosts, though, and perhaps fortunately for ‘BTTS’ bettors, the visitors can be a serious threat on the break, while Europa League clean sheets aren’t something that Ernesto Valverde’s men have specialised in this term.
Yuri Berchiche Over 0.5 Shots on Target
I also like the look of ‘Yuri Berchiche Over 0.5 Shots on Target’. Naturally not as effective offensively as the likes of Nico and Inaki Williams, nor Alex Berenguer, full-back Yuri Berchiche has gotten into the habit of shooting plenty in the Europa League this season, often occupying positions high up the pitch, while he’s also a threat from shooting-range set pieces.
The Spaniard has taken 10 shots in the UEL this season, averaging a decent 1.25 shots per 90 minutes. He also averages 0.50 shots on target per 90 minutes, meaning that he’s essentially testing opposition keepers in every other continental fixture. Given the odds available, I like this stat a lot.
In three home games in this competition, Berchiche has taken five shots, hitting the target three times, which again, given the 3/1 on offer, is not easy to ignore.
Recap - Athletic Bilbao vs AS Roma best value bets
The table below shows the odds available for our value betting tips at the time of writing, as well as what I consider to be fair odds for these selections. It’s important to note that to take value, you should be taking odds that are bigger than the fair odds. If bigger odds are not available, then there’s no value, which means no bet.
Bet | Odds available | Fair Odds | Value (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Both Teams to Score | 10/11 | 5/6 | +2.1% |
Yuri Berchiche Over 0.5 Shots on Target | 3/1 | 5/2 | +3.6% |
To recap, our best value bets ahead of this UEFA Europa League fixture are:
Both Teams to Score @ 10/11 with Betfred
Yuri Berchiche Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 3/1 with betway
More Europa League Betting Tips:
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Author

With over 12 years of experience, Bradley Gibbs is a seasoned sports betting writer and tipster specialising in uncovering value bets across football, horse racing, tennis, and golf. His extensive coverage of these sports has been featured on numerous websites and in The Racing & Football Outlook, a renowned UK betting publication. Bradley's expertise lies in identifying betting edges and delivering insightful, data-driven content for informed wagering.
With over 12 years of experience, Bradley Gibbs is a seasoned sports betting writer and tipster specialising in uncovering value bets across football, horse racing, tennis, and golf. His extensive coverage of these sports has been featured on numerous websites and in The Racing & Football Outlook, a renowned UK betting publication. Bradley's expertise lies in identifying betting edges and delivering insightful, data-driven content for informed wagering.