It’s back down to business for several teams in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday evening, when the Austrians and the Serbs will battle it out in Vienna.
As they fight for the right to feature in League A when the competition next relaunches, the pair will both be looking to secure a positive result ahead of the second leg, which takes place in Belgrade on Sunday. Read on for our Austria vs Serbia betting tips and best value bets.
Austria vs Serbia betting odds
Ahead of this game, the table below shows the probabilities implied by the odds for a selection of markets, as well as our adjusted probabilities and the differences to indicate whether there’s value or not on offer.
Bet | Odds | Implied probability | Our adjusted probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Austria to Win | 8/11 | 57.9% | 52.1% | -5.8% |
Serbia to Win | 18/5 | 21.7% | 20.2% | -1.5% |
Draw | 12/5 | 29.4% | 27.7% | -1.7% |
Both Teams to Score | EVS | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6% |
Both Teams to Score - NO | 4/5 | 55.6% | 49.4% | -6.2% |
Over 2.5 Goals | 11/10 | 47.6% | 46.5% | -1.1% |
Under 2.5 Goals | 8/11 | 57.9% | 53.5% | -4.4% |
Austria vs Serbia value betting tips
This game takes place on 20/03/2025 at Ernst Happel Stadion in Vienna. Kick off will be at 19:45 GMT.
Ahead of the action in Vienna on Thursday evening, two player bets appeal, both of which favour the hosts, who really will be looking to make the most of this home advantage.
Christoph Baumgartner to Score
Having created a hugely positive impression at the European Championships last summer, Christoph Baumgartner would’ve been hoping to have a big season with RB Leipzig in Germany this time around. Sadly, it hasn’t quite panned out that way, with the Austrian playing second fiddle to the likes of Xavi Simon and Louis Openda, both of whom have been fantastic.
However, we have still seen what Baumgartner is capable of on the biggest stage, with him twice scoring in the UEFA Champions League this season, while for Austria, he remains the main man offensively.
The 25-year-old has scored twice in five starts during the current Nations League campaign, while he’s looked particularly hungry on home soil, shooting no less than eight times against Slovenia, as well as twice against Norway.
We’ve seen the Serbs give lots away on the road, conceding two goals in Denmark, three goals in Spain, and while they only conceded one goal in Switzerland, they gave away lots of chances, conceding 2.40 xG and 19 shots.
The hosts will look to create here and they should get plenty of chances against a visiting defence that has looked quite weak. Don’t be surprised if key offensive player Baumgartner is in the thick of the action. I won’t be.
Patrick Wimmer to Score
At bigger odds of 4/1, I also like the look of Patrick Wimmer, who like Baumgartner has been shooting plenty in this competition, while the lively youngster also comes into this game having been in decent form domestically in recent weeks.
A couple of weeks ago, Wimmer scored twice for Wolfsburg against Werder Bremen, while he also recently scored against Kiel.
The 23-year-old hasn’t scored for Austria in the Nations League this time around, but he did have a spell on the sidelines through injury, meaning that he hasn’t been involved in all six games. When he has played, though, he’s looked hungry to score, averaging 4.60 shots per 90 minutes, as well as 1.15 shots on target. His next goal for Ralf Rangnick’s men likely isn’t far away.
Recap - Austria vs Serbia best value bets
The table below shows the odds available for our value betting tips at the time of writing, as well as what I consider to be fair odds for these selections. It’s important to note that to take value, you should be taking odds that are bigger than the fair odds. If bigger odds are not available, then there’s no value, which means no bet.
Bet | Odds available | Fair odds | Value (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
Christoph Baumgartner to Score | 14/5 | 5/2 | +2.3% |
Patrick Wimmer to Score | 4/1 | 7/2 | +2.2% |
To recap, our best value bets ahead of this UEFA Nations League fixture are:
Christoph Baumgartner to Score @ 14/5 with Betway
Patrick Wimmer to Score @ 4/1 with BoyleSports
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More UEFA Nations League betting tips:
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Author
With over 12 years of experience, Bradley Gibbs is a seasoned sports betting writer and tipster specialising in uncovering value bets across football, horse racing, tennis, and golf. His extensive coverage of these sports has been featured on numerous websites and in The Racing & Football Outlook, a renowned UK betting publication. Bradley's expertise lies in identifying betting edges and delivering insightful, data-driven content for informed wagering.
With over 12 years of experience, Bradley Gibbs is a seasoned sports betting writer and tipster specialising in uncovering value bets across football, horse racing, tennis, and golf. His extensive coverage of these sports has been featured on numerous websites and in The Racing & Football Outlook, a renowned UK betting publication. Bradley's expertise lies in identifying betting edges and delivering insightful, data-driven content for informed wagering.
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