Everton vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

Goodison Park braces for a crucial clash as a resurgent Everton side, unbeaten in their last five home league fixtures, welcome an Arsenal team potentially distracted by their upcoming Champions League showdown with Real Madrid.

The Toffees, despite narrowly losing the Merseyside derby, have shown remarkable resilience under David Moyes, while the Gunners appear vulnerable on the road having failed to win three of their last five away games despite their demolition of PSV.

With key injuries plaguing both squads—Calvert-Lewin, McNeil and Mangala for the home team, and Calafiori, Gabriel, Havertz, Tomiyasu and Jesus for the away team—Saturday's encounter promises to be a fascinating tactical battle.

Everton vs. Arsenal prediction: who will win?

For today's Everton vs Arsenal matchup, our predictive model gives the Gunners a 57.5% chance of defeating the Toffees.

Arsenal: 57.5% win probability

Strong defensive record (Only 25 goals conceded in 30 matches, second-best in the league)
Consistent point accumulation (61 points from 30 matches, sitting 2nd in the table)
Impressive recent form (WWDDL with only one loss in their last five matches)

Everton: 42.5% win probability

Struggle to convert draws into wins (13 draws, most in the league, but only 7 wins)
Poor attacking output (32 goals scored in 30 matches, among the lowest in the league)
Concerning recent form (LDDDD without a win in their last four matches)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.

Everton vs. Arsenal odds

Here are the latest odds as Everton host Arsenal in this Premier League clash on Saturday, April 05.

	Everton	Arsenal	Draw
Match Result	16/5 (via William Hill)	1/1 (via Betway UK)	9/4 ( via William Hill)

Everton vs. Arsenal preview

Everton's narrow 1-0 defeat in the Merseyside derby might've stung, but the Toffees have been remarkably difficult to beat at Goodison Park since David Moyes' January return, going unbeaten in their last five home league fixtures.

Arsenal, fresh off a 2-1 victory against Fulham thanks to goals from Mikel Merino and Bukayo Saka, find themselves with significant injury concerns as Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel, Kai Havertz, and Gabriel Jesus all remain sidelined for Saturday's clash.

The Gunners' away form has been a bit wobbly lately, winning just two of their last five competitive road games, which might give Everton hope of snatching something from this fixture.

Everton's resilience under Moyes has been impressive, with only three defeats since his return and none of those coming at home where they've managed to hold both Liverpool and Manchester United to draws.

With Bukayo Saka back from injury and looking sharp for the visitors, his battle against Vitaliy Mykolenko down Arsenal's right flank could prove decisive.

Arsenal's potential distraction with their upcoming Champions League clash against Real Madrid might play into Everton's hands, particularly as the title race seems all but over with Liverpool 12 points clear.

The last meeting between these sides ended in a drab 0-0 draw back in December, but with Everton being tough at home and Arsenal's inconsistent away form, we could be in for a tightly-contested affair on Merseyside.

I wouldn't be shocked to see a 1-1 scoreline when all's said and done, especially considering three of Everton's last four matches have ended with that exact result.

Everton vs. Arsenal betting tips

Everton Double Chance (Win or Draw) (6/5)

Arsenal @ Everton

Everton have shown remarkable resilience since David Moyes returned to the helm in January.

The Toffees boast an impressive home record, remaining unbeaten in their last five Premier League matches at Goodison Park.

Arsenal's away form has been somewhat questionable lately, failing to secure victories in three of their last five road fixtures.

The Gunners might be distracted by their upcoming midweek Champions League clash against Real Madrid.

This combination of factors creates a perfect storm for Everton to potentially snatch at least a point from this encounter.

Draw (3/1)

Arsenal @ Everton

Recent form points strongly toward a potential stalemate at Goodison Park on Sunday.

Arsenal's previous away trip resulted in a 1-1 draw at Manchester United, suggesting they might struggle again on the road.

Everton have developed a habit of sharing points, with three consecutive home games in the Premier League ending all square.

The Toffees seem to have found defensive stability under Moyes while still lacking consistent cutting edge in attack.

With Arsenal potentially prioritizing their European campaign, a draw represents excellent value in this fixture.

Correct Score: 1-1 (6/1)

Arsenal @ Everton

Statistical patterns strongly favor a 1-1 scoreline in this encounter at Goodison Park.

Three of Everton's last four matches across all competitions have finished with this exact scoreline.

Arsenal's most recent away performance ended in a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford, establishing a precedent for Sunday.

The Toffees have proven difficult to break down under Moyes while still carrying enough threat to find the net once.

This scoreline perfectly captures the expected tactical battle between Moyes' pragmatism and Arsenal's somewhat distracted approach.

Key stats

1
Arsenal sits 2nd in the table with 61 points compared to Everton in 15th with 34 points, showing a significant gap in quality
2
Everton has drawn 13 matches (most in the league) and is unbeaten in 4 games with a LDDDD recent form, suggesting they're difficult to beat despite their position
3
Arsenal has scored 55 goals to Everton's 32, highlighting the attacking difference between the sides
4
Everton's goal difference of -5 is considerably better than their league position would suggest, while Arsenal boasts the second-best defence in the league conceding only 25 goals