The Manchester derby arrives at a critical moment, with City finding their rhythm despite Haaland's absence while United continue to falter after their 13th league defeat at Forest midweek.

Old Trafford has been far from a fortress this season, with Amorim's men yet to claim a win against any top-eight side at home, while Guardiola's squad has netted at least twice in six of their seven visits to bottom-half teams.

All eyes will be on Manchester Utd vs Manchester City this Sunday as Omar Marmoush looks to extend his scoring streak to four consecutive matches against a Red Devils defense that's leaked goals in five of their last six outings.

Manchester Utd vs. Manchester City prediction: who will win?

For today's Manchester Utd vs Manchester City matchup, our predictive model gives the City a 80% chance of defeating the United.

Manchester City: 80% win probability

  • Powerful attacking force (57 goals scored this season, 3rd highest in the league)
  • Superior goal difference (+17 compared to United's -4, showing better overall balance)
  • Higher league position (5th with 51 points compared to United's 13th with 37 points)

Manchester Utd: 20% win probability

  • Poor recent form (LWDWD, with only one win in their last five matches)
  • Defensive vulnerability (41 goals conceded in 30 matches)
  • Inconsistent home performances (only 10 wins from 30 games played this season)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.

Manchester Utd vs. Manchester City odds

Here are the latest odds for the Premier League clash as Manchester Utd host local rivals Manchester City at Old Trafford on Sunday, April 06.

Manchester UtdManchester CityDraw
Match Result12/5 (via William Hill)11/10 (via Betway UK)13/5 ( via Betway UK)

Manchester Utd vs. Manchester City preview

Sunday's Manchester derby at Old Trafford sees a struggling United side desperate to overturn their poor home form against top-eight opposition as they welcome a City team finding their groove despite injury troubles.

The Red Devils might be buoyed by memories of their surprise 2-1 victory at the Etihad back in December, when late goals from Bruno Fernandes and Amad Diallo stunned the hosts, but their subsequent form offers little confidence for a repeat.

City, sitting fourth in the table after consecutive wins against Bournemouth and Leicester, have found an unexpected goalscoring hero in January signing Omar Marmoush, who's netted in three straight matches to help offset Erling Haaland's absence.

Pep Guardiola's squad continues to battle injuries, with Manuel Akanji, John Stones, Nathan Aké and crucially, Rodri, all unavailable alongside Haaland.

Rúben Amorim faces his own selection headaches with Kobbie Mainoo, Luke Shaw, Amad Diallo and Lisandro Martínez among those sidelined for a United team that's languishing in 13th after that midweek defeat at Nottingham Forest.

While City's away form against top-half teams has been dreadful, they've been lethal against bottom-half sides like United, scoring at least twice in six of seven such fixtures.

The visitors will fancy their chances of exposing a leaky United defence that's conceded in five of their last six matches, especially with Jack Grealish looking sharp after netting early against Leicester.

This could be a perfect opportunity for City to continue building momentum for their FA Cup semi-final later this month, while United desperately need something special to revive what's becoming a thoroughly disappointing campaign.

Manchester United vs. Manchester City betting tips

Manchester City Over 1.5 Team Goals (8/11)

Manchester City @ Manchester United

Manchester CityManchester United

Manchester City to win 2-1 (17/2)

Manchester City @ Manchester United

Manchester CityManchester United

Manchester City to Win (4/7)

Manchester City @ Manchester United

Manchester CityManchester United

Key stats

  • 1
    Manchester City (5th) sit 14 points above Manchester Utd (13th) in the Premier League table
  • 2
    Man Utd have won just 10 matches this season compared to Man City's 15 victories
  • 3
    City's recent form (WDLWL) has been slightly better than United's (LWDWD)
  • 4
    Manchester City boast a superior goal difference of +17 compared to United's -4

Manchester Utd vs. Manchester City form

Manchester Utd
Manchester Utd
Latest matches
L
W
W
D
D
Victories
2/5 (40%)
Draws
2/5 (40%)
Defeats
1/5 (20%)
Apr 1, 2025
Nottingham Forest1:0Manchester Utd
Mar 16, 2025
Leicester City0:3Manchester Utd
Mar 13, 2025
Real Sociedad1:4Manchester Utd
Mar 9, 2025
Arsenal1:1Manchester Utd
Mar 6, 2025
Real Sociedad1:1Manchester Utd
Manchester City
Manchester City
Latest matches
W
W
D
L
W
Victories
3/5 (60%)
Draws
1/5 (20%)
Defeats
1/5 (20%)
Apr 2, 2025
Leicester City0:2Manchester City
Mar 30, 2025
AFC Bournemouth1:2Manchester City
Mar 15, 2025
Brighton & Hove Albion2:2Manchester City
Mar 8, 2025
Nottingham Forest1:0Manchester City
Mar 1, 2025
Plymouth Argyle1:3Manchester City

Manchester Utd vs. Manchester City head to head

Manchester Utd

40%

Manchester City

60%

Dec 15, 2024

Manchester City

1 : 2

Manchester Utd

Aug 10, 2024

Manchester City

1 : 1

Manchester Utd

May 25, 2024

Manchester City

1 : 2

Manchester Utd

Mar 3, 2024

Manchester City

3 : 1

Manchester Utd

Oct 29, 2023

Manchester Utd

0 : 3

Manchester City

Jun 3, 2023

Manchester City

2 : 1

Manchester Utd