Southampton vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

With Southampton already relegated and manager-less after their 3-1 defeat to Tottenham, they face the daunting task of hosting an Aston Villa side riding high on a three-game winning streak in the Premier League.

Villa may have one eye on their Champions League return leg against PSG, potentially opening the door for the Saints to add to their measly points tally as they desperately try to avoid finishing below Derby's record-low 11 points.

All eyes will be on St Mary's Stadium this Saturday as bottom-dwelling Southampton host Champions League-chasing Aston Villa in what could be another painful afternoon for the home team.

Southampton vs. Aston Villa prediction: who will win?

For today's Southampton vs Aston Villa matchup, our predictive model gives the Villa a 81.67% chance of defeating the Saints.

Aston Villa: 81.67% win probability

Strong recent form with four wins in last five matches (WWWLW)
Impressive offensive output with 46 goals scored this season (10th in league)
Solid league position at 7th place with 51 points from 31 matches

Southampton: 18.33% win probability

Disastrous recent form with four losses in last five matches (LDLLL)
Bottom of the table with just 10 points from 31 matches (20th position)
Worst defensive record in the league conceding 74 goals (2.39 goals per match)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.

Southampton vs. Aston Villa odds

Here are the latest odds for Southampton hosting Aston Villa at home in Premier League action on Saturday, April 12.

	Southampton	Aston Villa	Draw
Match Result	4/1 (via Betway UK)	57/100 (via Betway UK)	7/2 ( via Betway UK)

Southampton vs. Aston Villa preview

Southampton's woeful season hit rock bottom last weekend with their relegation confirmed after a 3-1 defeat to Spurs, making them the first Premier League side to drop with seven games still to play.

The managerial carousel continues to spin at St. Mary's with Ivan Juric becoming the latest casualty, leaving the Saints desperate to avoid Derby's infamous 11-point record low as they welcome Aston Villa.

Unai Emery's Villa arrive with momentum to burn – they've won seven of their last eight league matches, though they might be forgiven for having one eye on Tuesday's Champions League return leg against PSG.

Marco Asensio could be key for the visitors, with the Spanish midfielder in red-hot form having netted eight goals in his last nine appearances for Villa.

Saints' home form offers little hope for the dejected home faithful, who haven't witnessed a league victory at St. Mary's in their last ten attempts.

While Villa have leaked goals on their travels – conceding 27 times in 15 away matches – their attacking firepower should ultimately prove too much for a Southampton defence that's shipped a calamitous 40 goals on home soil.

The visitors have historically dominated this fixture, winning five of the last six meetings including a 1-0 victory earlier this season through Jhon Durán's strike.

Both teams finding the net wouldn't be surprising given Southampton have scored in their last four matches and Villa have conceded in each of their four visits to bottom-five teams this term.

Southampton vs. Aston Villa betting tips

Both Teams To Score (7/10)

Aston Villa @ Southampton

Aston Villa have been in tremendous form but their defensive record on the road leaves much to be desired.

The Villans have conceded in all four of their visits to bottom five sides this season, showing vulnerability at the back.

Southampton have proven they can find the net against top opposition at home, scoring against Liverpool, Chelsea and Newcastle.

Villa's congested fixture list with a PSG rematch looming could impact their defensive focus in this match.

Martin's men will fancy their chances to get on the scoresheet even as they struggle against a superior Villa side.

Aston Villa to win 2-1 (7/1)

Aston Villa @ Southampton

Unai Emery's men have excellent away form, winning four of their previous five matches on the road.

Southampton are in dreadful form, having lost seven of their last eight fixtures across all competitions.

The Saints have a particularly poor record against top teams, losing all 11 matches against top-seven opposition this season.

Villa have made 2-1 scorelines something of a specialty, with six previous wins by this exact margin in the league.

Despite rotation concerns with European commitments, Villa should have enough quality to secure three points in a competitive match.

Aston Villa to Win (17/20)

Aston Villa @ Southampton

Aston Villa's impressive form continues with seven wins from their last eight matches showing their quality.

Southampton look destined for relegation having struggled badly against top-half opposition throughout the campaign.

The Saints' home record offers little comfort, with key losses against similar quality opponents.

Villa may rotate with European commitments but their squad depth should still provide enough quality to overcome the struggling hosts.

Emery's tactical approach has made Villa formidable opponents even when they're not at full strength.

Key stats

1
Southampton sit bottom of the league in 20th position with just 10 points from 31 matches
2
Aston Villa are in 7th place with 51 points, 41 more than Southampton
3
Southampton have the worst form in the league with LDLLL in their last five matches
4
Aston Villa have scored nearly twice as many goals as Southampton (46 vs 23) while conceding fewer (46 vs 74)