Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

Aston Villa face a tough test against in-form Newcastle United at Villa Park in what promises to be Saturday's most compelling Premier League encounter, with the Magpies riding a six-match winning streak and having dominated this fixture recently with three consecutive victories.

Unai Emery's Villa showed their quality in midweek with an impressive 3-2 Champions League win over PSG, but potential fatigue could hamper their chances against a Newcastle side that cruised to a 5-0 thrashing of Crystal Palace.

Both teams are locked in the race for Champions League qualification, adding significant stakes to a matchup where Newcastle's recent 11-2 aggregate advantage across their last three meetings gives Eddie Howe's men a psychological edge despite Villa's impressive 18-match unbeaten home record.

Aston Villa vs. Newcastle prediction: who will win?

For today's Aston Villa vs Newcastle matchup, our predictive model gives the Magpies a 52.5% chance of defeating the Villans.

Newcastle: 52.5% win probability

Exceptional current form (WWWWW in their last five matches)
Superior attacking threat (61 goals scored this season, 12 more than Aston Villa)
Higher league position (3rd place with 59 points compared to Villa's 7th with 54 points)

Aston Villa: 47.5% win probability

Recent inconsistency (WWWWL in last five matches, ending with a loss)
Defensive vulnerability (46 goals conceded, 6 more than Newcastle)
Home advantage potentially neutralized by Newcastle's strong away record (Newcastle sitting 3rd in the table despite playing same number of matches)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.

Aston Villa vs. Newcastle odds

Here are the latest odds for the Premier League clash between Aston Villa (home) and Newcastle on Saturday, April 19.

	Aston Villa	Newcastle	Draw
Match Result	13/10 (via William Hill)	47/25 (via Betway UK)	13/5 ( via Betway UK)

Aston Villa vs. Newcastle preview

Newcastle arrive at Villa Park riding a sensational six-match winning streak, most recently demolishing Crystal Palace 5-0 midweek, while Villa enter this clash with tired legs after their spirited but ultimately futile 3-2 Champions League victory over PSG.

The Magpies have established themselves as Villa's bogey team lately, winning all three previous encounters by a combined 11-2 scoreline, including a commanding 3-0 victory in December's reverse fixture.

Eddie Howe's side continues their Champions League push without Botman, Lascelles and Hall, but Jacob Murphy's electric form - contributing three goals and four assists in his last five appearances - gives them firepower on the right flank.

Villa's formidable home record of 15 league matches unbeaten will face its sternest test against Newcastle's revitalized attack led by Alexander Isak, who scored in both fixtures against the Villans last season.

While Unai Emery has a full squad to choose from, the physical demands of their midweek European exertions could prove significant against a Newcastle side showing clinical finishing and defensive solidity during their impressive winning run.

Aston Villa vs. Newcastle betting tips

Newcastle to Win (47/25)

Newcastle @ Aston Villa

Newcastle enter this fixture riding an impressive six-game winning streak and have dominated recent head-to-head meetings with Villa.

The Magpies have been ruthless against Villa lately, winning their last three encounters by a combined score of 11-2.

Villa may be feeling the effects of their midweek European exertions, having put everything into their 3-2 win over PSG that still wasn't enough to advance.

Newcastle can strengthen their hold on a top-five position with a victory over a direct rival in this crucial Premier League clash.

Eddie Howe's men have found their rhythm at the perfect time and should capitalize on Villa's potential fatigue at Villa Park.

Jacob Murphy To Score Anytime (7/2)

Newcastle @ Aston Villa

Jacob Murphy is in scintillating form for Newcastle, having found the net three times in his last three appearances.

The winger was exceptional against Crystal Palace midweek, contributing both a goal and an assist in a standout performance.

Murphy's recent offensive output has been remarkable with four assists in his last five matches on top of his goal-scoring exploits.

His confidence in front of goal is at an all-time high, making him a prime candidate to score against an Aston Villa side that might be depleted after their European efforts.

Murphy's attacking positioning and increased involvement in Newcastle's offensive play makes him excellent value to find the scoresheet at Villa Park.

Newcastle to Win 2-1 (11/1)

Newcastle @ Aston Villa

While Newcastle should secure the victory, this clash at Villa Park promises to be a tightly contested affair between two quality sides.

Villa boast an impressive 18-match unbeaten run at home and haven't failed to score there since October, suggesting they'll find the net despite potential fatigue.

The hosts have shown resilience at Villa Park all season, with no visiting team managing to score more than twice against them on their own turf.

Newcastle's momentum and Villa's European hangover point to an away win, but Unai Emery's men will likely make it competitive in front of their home supporters.

The combination of Newcastle's winning form and Villa's consistent home scoring record makes a 2-1 away victory a shrewd betting proposition.

Key stats

1
Newcastle sits 3rd in the table with 59 points, while Aston Villa is 7th with 54 points - a 5-point gap between the sides.
2
Newcastle boasts perfect recent form (WWWWW) compared to Villa's more inconsistent run (WWWWL).
3
Newcastle has scored 61 goals this season (3rd highest in the league) while conceding 40, for a goal difference of +21.
4
Aston Villa has identical win-loss records (15W-9L-8D) to 6th-placed Chelsea, suggesting a competitive mid-table battle.