Manchester City vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

Manchester City host Aston Villa in a crucial Premier League clash on Tuesday with significant Champions League implications, as the Citizens hold just a one-point advantage over fifth-placed Villa.

Pep Guardiola's side enters the match without key defenders John Stones, Nathan Ake, and Manuel Akanji—plus star striker Erling Haaland—while Villa arrive in stronger domestic form having won four consecutive league matches.

Both teams' recent performances suggest an entertaining encounter awaits at the Etihad, where Villa's January additions Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio could test City's depleted backline.

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Manchester City vs Aston Villa matchup, our predictive model gives the Villans a 65% chance of defeating the Citizens.

Aston Villa: 65% win probability

In-form team (Perfect recent form of WWWWW, one of only two teams in the league with five straight wins)
Potent attack (53 goals scored this season, ranking 7th in the league despite their position)
Commanding away presence (Currently on a winning streak with superior momentum to City's mixed results)

Manchester City: 35% win probability

Inconsistent recent form (WWDWD showing inability to string together consecutive wins)
Defensive vulnerability (42 goals conceded, which is high for a top-five team)
Home advantage diminished (Only 7 draws this season, suggesting they struggle to convert home pressure into wins)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model harnesses insights from top Premier League football experts. Instead of scouring hundreds of analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to gauge the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analysing football predictions, statistics, and expert opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability—capturing the collective intelligence of the football industry's most respected Premier League analysts.

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa odds

Here are the latest odds as Manchester City hosts Aston Villa in Premier League action on Tuesday, April 22.

	Manchester City	Aston Villa	Draw
Match Result	83/100 (via Betway UK)	14/5 (via William Hill)	3/1 ( via Betway UK)

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa preview

Manchester City welcome Aston Villa to the Etihad on Tuesday for a clash that could prove decisive in the Champions League qualification race, with Pep Guardiola's men holding just a one-point advantage over their fifth-placed visitors.

City have found their scoring touch despite Erling Haaland's continued absence, demonstrated by their five-goal haul against Crystal Palace, though their once-impenetrable defense looks vulnerable with several key defenders sidelined through injury.

Villa arrive in formidable domestic form having won four straight league matches and nearly orchestrated a comeback against PSG in Europe, suggesting they'll provide stern opposition for the reigning champions.

Unai Emery's side, boosted by January additions Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio, already defeated City 2-1 earlier this season during the champions' pre-Christmas wobble.

The Villans' resilient away form - unbeaten in their last three league road trips - will be tested against a City side that hasn't lost at home in their last three, setting the stage for what promises to be a thrilling encounter with significant top-four implications.

Manchester City vs. Aston Villa betting tips

Draw and Over 1.5 Goals (7/2)

Aston Villa @ Manchester City

Manchester City have shown vulnerability lately, drawing two of their last five Premier League matches despite their championship pedigree.

Aston Villa have been remarkably resilient, losing just twice in their last 15 league games while drawing five times during this impressive run.

The Villans demonstrated their capability against top opposition back in December when they defeated City 2-1 at Villa Park.

Eight of Villa's nine league draws this season have featured at least two goals, suggesting we'll see meaningful action even in a stalemate.

With City desperate for points in the title race and Villa's attacking confidence soaring after their 4-1 dismantling of Newcastle, both sides should find the net in what could be a high-scoring draw.

Aston Villa win or draw double chance (11/1)

Aston Villa @ Manchester City

Unai Emery's Aston Villa present formidable opposition for City having won an impressive ten of their last eleven matches across all competitions.

The Villans have already beaten elite competition this season including PSG in Europe and Manchester City themselves in the reverse fixture.

City needed late heroics to overcome Everton at the weekend, suggesting they're not at their imperious best at a crucial stage of the season.

Villa's tactical setup under Emery has proven effective against possession-dominant teams, allowing them to counter with devastating efficiency.

With Villa losing just two of their last five meetings with City, they've shown they have the blueprint to frustrate Guardiola's side again.

Morgan Rogers to score or assist (3/1)

Aston Villa @ Manchester City

Morgan Rogers has been a revelation for Villa and was the decisive factor in their previous 2-1 victory over City, both assisting and scoring in that statement win.

The young attacker's contribution in Villa's weekend thrashing of Newcastle took his season tally to an impressive 25 goal contributions across all competitions.

Rogers is hitting peak form at the perfect time with two goals and four assists in his last six appearances for the Villans.

His direct running style and intelligent movement in the final third could exploit the spaces City occasionally leave when committing to their attacking philosophy.

Having already proven he can perform against City's defensive unit, Rogers will enter this fixture with supreme confidence in his ability to impact the game.

Key stats

1
Manchester City sit 5th in the table with 58 points from 33 matches, having won 17, drawn 7 and lost 9 games this season.
2
Man City are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (WWDWD) while Aston Villa come in with perfect recent form (WWWWW).
3
Villa currently occupy 7th position with 57 points, just one point behind City despite having identical win-loss records (16W-9L-9D).
4
City boast a superior goal difference (+22) compared to Villa's (+6), having scored 64 goals while conceding 42 this season.