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The last game for the 2023-24 NFL regular season is a curious case, considering the Bills were one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and are still viewed as such by many analysts, but might not make it to the postseason if they lose to the Dolphins on Sunday night.
After securing a playoff berth Miami will comfortably host Buffalo at Hard Rock Stadium. Make no mistake, though. The Dolphins will do their best to avenge the 48-20 loss to the Bills in October, and win the AFC East title. The Bills can also clinch the divisional title with a win in Miami. However, the best free betting sites believe the Bills have a stronger motive, and their better performance in December makes Buffalo a 3-point favorite on Sunday.
The Bills Started Justifying Expectations
Buffalo will arrive in Miami after four straight wins, including triumphs against contenders Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys, and they must win or tie with the Dolphins to secure a playoff spot. Other combinations are in play, but the Bills will no doubt strive to control their destiny.
Quarterback Josh Allen has had a solid season with 3,947 passing yards in 16 games and 27 touchdowns, plus 15 rushing touchdowns for an extra 457 yards on the ground. However, Allen is still prone to throwing intersections with 16 picks this season, ranking 2nd in the league.
James Cook bolsters the run, averaging 67.9 yards a game for a total of 1,086 yards, but only 2 TDs. The Bills' passing game heavily relies on WR Stefon Diggs, with 1,096 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Buffalo averages 26.9 points a game, and the defense is consistent, allowing 18.6 points per contest.
Miami Is Still Not Respected
The Dolphins have struggled to win against Super Bowl contenders this season. Last week, Miami lost 56-19 to the Ravens. The Dolphins struggled against the Baltimore defense, with Tua Tagovailoa throwing for 2 TDs and 2 interceptions. The explosive plays from WR Tyreek Hill were missing, and the star receiver looked pedestrian with 76 yards on 6 receptions.
The only player with a good day was RB De’Von Achane, with a receiving touchdown and 107 yards rushing. The performance against the Ravens mirrors the Dolphins' story for the entire season when they face big teams.
Head coach Mike McDaniel’s offensive scheme produces 30.1 points a game. Yet, looking at their scoring against contenders, Miami rarely goes over 20 points. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio created a solid defensive unit, ranking 9th in the league for total defense and conceding 23.1 points per game.
Betting Prediction
The stakes are high for the Bills, and despite all his qualities, Josh Allen is not immune to turning the ball over in crucial moments. Most betting apps allocate -115 odds on a moneyline bet for the Bills and +130 odds on the Dolphins.
The total is set at 49.5 points with -108 odds for the Over bet and -112 odds for the Under bet. Miamins gets -108 odds for covering its +3 point spread, and the Bills receive -112 odds for their -3 point spread. The last time the Dolphins won the AFC East was in 2008, making this game very important for both teams.
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